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Biggest Oscar Upset: Peter O'Toole will win, after all

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Gold Derby: The Envelope: Biggest Oscar upset: Peter O'Toole will win, after all.

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Biggest Oscar upset: Peter O'Toole will win, after all
from the Envelope
Peter O'Toole's prospects to win best actor have rallied considerably in the past few weeks. Up till now, Forest Whitaker looked unbeatable while he swept through all of the early kudos — and I mean ALL (critics, Globe, SAG) — while marching toward what looked like an Oscar inevitability.A few months ago I was O'Toole's earliest trumpeteer, warning all ye in kudosland that hear ye, hear ye, Oscar's Biggest Loser was heading this way, demanding homage from his minions at long last. But he didn't arrive as promised. He ditched the Toronto Film Festival, snubbed the Golden Globes, and shunned Los Angeles as if he'd heard a nasty rumor that Prohibition was back. It was starting to look like O'Toole didn't care that he'd lose the Oscar next. So I had to ditch him, too, and put my pundit's money chips on Whitaker.But then suddenly O'Toole came roaring back to ole rascal life as soon as Oscar nominations came out. He flew to New York for a whirlwind of TV talk shows — especially all of The Cool Ones like Letterman, "Daily Show" and, ahem, "The View" — where he charmed every host and every viewer. Then he FINALLY arrived in Los Angeles on Feb. 5 for the nominees' lunch, letting everyone under the California sun know that he's not only back in the game, but that he'll back later to attend the Oscar show on the 25th, so, please, count him in as a real player. Referring to the rousing ovation O'Toole got from the L.A. luncheon crowd, he told the L.A. Times, "Having somewhat presumptuously said I was still in the game some time ago and to find out I still am in the game and to have been dealt a really lovely hand, I am going to play it for what it's worth."The Times' Q&A chat with O'Toole by Susan King appeared in print on Feb. 8. That timing is crucial because about half of the ballots were probably still out at that point. That article had huge visibility and charming content as he recalled hilarious memories of working with Katharine Hepburn on "The Lion in Winter." "She called me 'Pig' or 'Henry' depending on her mood," he said. "And I called her 'Old Nags.'"Last Sunday night while sitting with four academy members at the Eddie Awards, I discovered 2 votes for O'Toole, 1 for Leo DiCaprio and 1 for Forest Whitaker. Three close friends of mine who belong to the academy tell me they voted for O'Toole. Granted, I've heard lots of votes for Whitaker, too, and a surprisingly high number for DiCaprio. Leo's really in this game, too.But it's rare that Oscar voters opt for villain roles like Whitaker's, especially when they're supporting. Yeah, yeah, there was Anthony Hopkins in "The Silence of the Lambs," but that was the best-pic winner and voters frequently like to give the stars of the top champ a ride to the winner's circle. Bottom line: Oscar voters are sentimental folk and never before have they snubbed an actor eight times. Many times in the past we've seen one actor sweep all of the early awards, then lose on Oscar night to a veteran. "Mona Lisa" star Bob Hoskins' early romp derailed by Paul Newman's Oscar win for "The Color of Money" comes to mind. So does the thrashing Jessica Tandy ("Driving Miss Daisy") gave to Michelle Pfeiffer ("The Fabulous Baker Boys").Peter O'Toole will prevail this Sunday night because he rallied exactly at the right time. As every brilliant actor knows, great moments of dramatic triumph are all about timing.Photo: Based upon the actual votes I've tabulated, the best-actor race is actually quite close between Forest Whitaker, Peter O'Toole and Leo DiCaprio. I'm back to betting on O'Toole, who's rallied impressively in recent weeks. (Miramax)